Annual Report 2013

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.1

The stimulus plans of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) calmed the global capital markets and the real economy again in 2013. Provided the sovereign debt and banking crisis does not deteriorate again, the expansion of the global economy could accelerate in the course of 2014 and 2015, supported primarily by increased growth in the industrialized countries.

The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the OECD, and economic researchers in the core EU member states agree on the prognosis for Europe: The downward trend is over and the many years of weak growth will be overcome in 2014 and 2015. That being the case, the economic outlook for our key markets is more positive than one year ago:

  • Development in Germany is expected to be more positive in the coming years following the moderate growth of 2012 and 2013. The situation on the labor market is likely to improve further on the back of the economic recovery, leading to a slight rise in employment levels again in 2014 and in 2015.
  • Some of the core countries of Eastern Europe are expected to record strong growth rates in 2014 and 2015.

For the United States, leading banks and institutions forecast that the economy will grow far faster in the coming years as the negative effect caused by the consolidation of the budget is expected to ease and, as a result, domestic demand is expected to rise. The labor market is also expected to improve further.

GDP forecasts for 2014 and 2015.
T 042
%
  2014 compared
with 2013
2015 compared
with 2014
 
Source: Oxford Economics, January 2014.
Germany 1.6 1.7
United States 3.1 3.2
Greece (0.5) 1.7
Poland 2.8 3.4
Hungary 2.2 1.7
Czech Republic 2.2 2.9
Croatia 0.8 2.1
Netherlands 0.3 0.8
Slovakia 2.0 3.5
Austria 1.5 1.9
Romania 1.9 2.5
United Kingdom 2.6 2.4